Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
